It sort of doesn’t make sense that the Fed would cut rates as drastically if the economy were super strong, if we achieve a soft landing. And there’s a lot more skepticism coming out right now. I think it was way too early in 2023 to call any kind of victory to the hiking cycle because frankly, the rate hikes haven’t really made their way through the mainstream economy. So, we’re not surprised by this.ĭo you still see soft-landing optimism in the market?Īs we begin 2024, I’m hearing the soft landing narrative be questioned. It’s hard to trust the trading in the last week of December because the volume isn’t very high, but then people come back from vacation in January and sometimes when too much excitement or too much optimism has built in, you do see some selling. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.īefore the Bell: What was behind this month’s bumpy beginning for stocks?Īnna Rathbun: Part of this regaining some sobriety from a really great December where everything seemed to go up, stocks and bonds included. With these two January market indicators at odds - at least, so far this month - should investors pay attention to them at all?īefore the Bell spoke with Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, to discuss. In contrast, when the index has gained during the first five trading sessions, it has logged a 14.2% annual gain on average and risen for the year about 83% of the time. When the benchmark has fallen during this period, it has returned an average of 0.3% for the year and logged an annual gain about 54% of the time since 1950, according to LPL Financial. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% during the first five trading days of 2024. Related article Chinese stocks are having their worst start to a year since 2016 The Shanghai Financial Exchange Square in Shanghai, China, in December 2023. Narrowing the scope as such suggests investors could have reason to worry. The January barometer, introduced in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, states that however stocks perform during January, their year-end performance will follow suit.īut a separate trend, the First Five Days of January indicator, suggests that the market’s performance during just the first five trading days of January is prophetic for the whole year. One seasonal indicator suggest that’s a positive sign for the rally’s longevity. The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes, which both notched record high closes on Friday, are up 1.2% and 1.1% this month, respectively. The major Wall Street indexes started the year by breaking a nine-week streak of gains that was powered by rising optimism the Federal Reserve will nail a soft landing, or bring down inflation without triggering mass unemployment.īut last week, all three major indexes turned positive for the year as tech stocks led the broader market higher. History indicates that if the market can cling to those gains, that could bode well for the rest of the year. New York (CNN) - US stocks rallied powerfully last week after a topsy-turvy start to the month. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter.

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